DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/01 07:14

   Cotton Trades Flat

   In light of Monday's stunningly bearish acres report, the overnight cotton 
market is slightly unchanged to higher.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   In light of Monday's stunningly bearish acres report, the overnight cotton 
market is slightly unchanged to higher. USDA reported greater-than-anticipated 
acres than was seen in the planting intentions survey of last March.

   Highlights from USDA's long-awaited planted acres data for 2025 were as 
follows: U.S. cotton planted area 10.12 million acres vs 9.867 million acres in 
the March Prospective Plantings and 9.735 million acres expected from a 
pre-report survey. The fact that acreage went up instead of down from the March 
number and was above the upper end of the expected range was viewed as 
particularly bearish.

   Monday afternoon, USDA updated its crop progress and condition numbers. The 
report showed that 95% of the 2025 crop was planted. The crop was rated 51% 
good to excellent, which was up from the previous reading of 47%. The five-year 
average for this date is 46%.

   This Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly export sales data. Last week's 
business showed sales for the expiring old crop season were 27,300, while sales 
for new crop were only 64,700 bales. Weekly shipments were 184,000 bales, down 
10%.

   Also on Thursday, the Labor Department will release its monthly jobs report. 
Current estimates for non-farm payrolls are 120,000 versus the previous 139,000 
jobs.

   July cotton is in delivery period, but there were zero notices tendered 
today. Thus far there have been a total of 225 notices tendered. The period 
ends on July 9.

   The cotton market will be closed on Friday, July 4, in observance of 
Independence Day. The ICE futures will reopen at 8 a.m. EDT Monday.

   Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 67.50 cents and 67.00 
cents, with resistance at 69.50 cents and 70.00 cents. Tuesday morning's 
estimated volume is 6,924 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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