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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          06/27 08:10

   Cotton Lower Still

   The cotton market has yet to find any technical or fundamental footing and 
has already violated last week's steep low. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market has yet to find any technical or fundamental footing and 
has already violated last week's steep low. The market cascaded lower last week 
on fears that a global recession would restrict exports and demand. 

   From last week's export sales data we note that cumulative sales for 2021/22 
have reached 15.55 million bales. That amount is below the 16.02 million from a 
year ago. Sales have reached 112% of the USDA's forecast for the marketing year 
versus a five-year average of 109%.

   Weather-wise, the one to five-day forecast calls for rainfall possibly up to 
one-half inch for West Texas, while certain longer-term outlooks suggest a 
swing of below-normal to normal bouts of precipitation, with above-normal 
temperatures. 

   This Thursday USDA will release its Planted Acres Report. The average 
industry estimate calls for 12.20 million planted acres, which is very close to 
the March intentions of 12.234 million. However, expectations are apt to change 
before Thursday. That report is out at 12:00 p.m. EDT.

   Monday afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will update the condition of the 2022 
crop. The overall good/excellent rating fell by 6 points last week.

   The CFTC released its Commitments of Traders Report last Friday. Its data 
showed that the managed-money funds were net sellers of 2,140 contracts. 
However, the gathering for this report ended with last Tuesday's closing. Given 
the steep sell-off, their net long position may already be significantly 
reduced.

   For Monday, support for December cotton stands at 94.75 cents and 93.00 
cents, with resistance at 100.00 cents and 105.00 cents. The estimated morning 
volume is 11,850 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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