DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/16 07:49

   Cotton Stumbles Lower

   After its Monday attempt to turn higher, the cotton market is right back 
pushing lower Tuesday morning. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After its Monday attempt to turn higher, the cotton market is right back 
pushing lower Tuesday morning. With the Iran/Israeli event ever so slightly 
tapering down, more markets are reverting back to their original trading paths.

   Monday afternoon, USDA updated traders on the planting progress of the 2024 
crop. It showed, as of this past weekend, that the 2024/2025 cotton crop is 8% 
planted versus the five-year average of 8% seeded for this time of year.

   May cotton will enter its notice period on April 24. Its delivery will run 
through the expiration of the contract, which occurs on May 8.

   The U.S. dollar is at five-month highs, reflecting a stronger-than-expected 
U.S. retail sales data. The report showed that U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% last 
month, compared with 0.3% expected. Financial traders are now pricing in a 41% 
chance of the Fed cutting rates in July, compared with around 50% before the 
data.

   Crude oil futures are lower for the second session, as U.S. officials expect 
a limited response from Israel to Iran. Israel's War Cabinet met for several 
hours Monday to weigh how Israel should respond, however, the U.S., the UK and 
other allies have made it clear to Israel that they would participate in any 
sort of military retaliation.

   For Monday, chart support for July cotton stands at 83.80 cents and 83.00 
cents, with 86.60 cents and 87.00 cents as resistance. Monday morning's 
estimated volume stands at 10,285 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.