DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          03/17 07:20

   Cotton Higher as Outside Markets Recover 

   The cotton market remains resilient in the face of declining sister markets 
and remains so in their recovery

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market remains resilient in the face of declining sister markets 
and remains so in their recovery. Monday saw corn and soybeans trade sharply 
lower, with some bean contracts limit-down; but cotton stayed strong as it 
considered its own positive fundamentals.

   The Trump/Xi meeting has apparently been delayed by at least a month. 
President Trump said Monday the U.S. has asked for a delay due to the ongoing 
war with Iran. Trump was expected to travel to China at the end of March for 
the meeting with Xi. At their recent Paris meeting, the advance parties for 
both sides had great talks, with China expressing buying interest in other 
"non-soybean crops," implying cotton. That inference helped to lift the ICE 
market.

   The Climate Prediction Center revealed 88% of U.S. cotton planted area is 
suffering some form of drought. The current 6- to 10-day outlook has below- to 
much-below chances for rain for the entirety of the Cotton Belt, as well as 
above- to much-above temperatures.

   This week, traders will see various economic reports and events, including 
housing starts, the meeting of the Federal Reserve Tuesday and Wednesday, and 
weekly export sales.

   USDA will issue its Planting Intentions Report on March 31. This will be the 
first official look at 2026 acres. The survey is conducted in the first two 
weeks of March.

   Overnight, crude oil has jumped nearly 4% as uncertainty lingers over a 
U.S.-led coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In 
addition, there are mixed messages coming from the Trump administration over 
the war's possible duration. Weirdly, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent 
said the U.S. was allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of 
Hormuz.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 69.30 cents and 68.95 cents, with 
resistance around 71.00 cents and 71.70 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated 
volume is 33,504 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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