DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          12/01 07:32

   Cotton Starts New Month 

   The cotton market is slightly lower Monday.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is slightly lower Monday morning as it initiates a new 
month of trading and is heading toward the end-of-the-quarter and 
the-end-of-the-year. Traders are weighing the potential of a weaker U.S. 
dollar, improving export sales, and a burdensome net-short position held by 
certain speculators. 

   USDA issued a catch-up cotton export sales report last Friday. It showed net 
sales of 175,678 bales for 2025-26, and net sales of 26,840 for 2026-27. The 
total was 202,518. Shipments of 159,600 bales were the highest since last July. 
The 5-year average for that week was 129,000. The agency will release another 
report Monday, covering the week ended Oct. 23. As they stand, cumulative sales 
for 2025-26 have reached 4.75 million bales, down from 5.30 million at this 
time last year and below the 5-year average of 7.218 million and the lowest 
since 2015-16.

   The spot December contract remains in delivery, with no notices issued 
Monday. Thus far, the total notices tendered stand at 173 contracts. Delivery 
runs through Dec. 7.  

   The 6- to 10-day forecast (Dec. 6-Dec. 10) shows slightly above-normal 
temperatures for Texas and normal readings for the Delta and the Southeast. 
Rain-wise, Texas will see below-normal chances, while the lower Delta and 
Southeast are set to have just above-normal chances.     

   Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 64.00 cents and 63.50 cents, 
with resistance at 65.00 cents and 65.40 cents. This morning's estimated 
opening volume is 5,245 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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