DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          03/10 07:17

   Cotton Up Tuesday, Defying Surrounding Markets 

   Despite collapsing crude oil, the cotton market is standing somewhat higher 
Tuesday morning. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Despite collapsing crude oil, the cotton market is standing somewhat higher 
Tuesday morning. Traders are gearing up for today's WASDE, as well as assessing 
2026 acres versus very dry field conditions. Also, as the perception that the 
"Iran Thing" is "winding down", the U.S. dollar is easing off as well.

   Tuesday at noon EDT, USDA will update its supply-demand tables via the March 
WASDE. Average trade estimates for 2025-26 U.S. cotton production stand at 
13.90 million bales, slightly down from the 13.92 million reported in February. 
Exports are expected at 11.97 million bales versus 12.00 million in February, 
and ending stocks are expected to be at 4.36 million bales compared to the 
previous 4.40 million bales. World 2025-26 production is expected at 119.80 
million bales, versus the 119.86 million in February. Consumption looks to be 
118.75 million versus 118.72, and ending stocks are projected at 74.80 million 
bales versus 75.11 in the February update.

   Wednesday and Thursday, the Commerce Department will release new CPI 
(consumer inflation) and PPI (wholesale inflation). Their data will likely 
influence the Federal Reserve at its next meeting regarding interest rates.

   Also on Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly export sales report. Last 
week's current seasonal sales were 150,000 bales, off 41%. However, weekly 
shipments of 282,000 bales constituted a marketing-year-high pace. The data 
will be out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

   This Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment-of-Traders 
data. Last week, the managed-money funds net sold some 7,500 positions, 
increasing their net-short carry to 73,973 contracts. For context their record 
bearish position stands at 81,358 contracts.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 66.10 cents and 65.55 cents, with 
resistance around 67.50 and 68.00. Tuesday morning's estimated volume is 16,660 
contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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