DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          03/05 07:52

   Cotton Market Shuts Off Outside War Fears

   The cotton market has somewhat shut off outside war fears but has little to 
show for it

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market has somewhat shut off outside war fears but has little to 
show for it. Still, readers must understand the ICE cotton is in a bearish 
market that is trying to stage a turnaround. That takes time, weather, and 
demand. 

   Spot March cotton saw zero delivery notices Thursday and, with an open 
interest of two contracts, that will likely be the situation till the end. Thus 
far, some 600 delivery tenders have been issued. The delivery period runs 
through Monday, March 9.

   USDA released its weekly export sales and shipments report with the 
following numbers: "Net sales of Upland totaling 150,400 RB for 2025/2026 were 
down 41 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week 
average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (50,800 RB, including 3,500 RB 
switched from unknown destinations, 1,900 RB switched from South Korea, and 100 
RB switched from Japan), Pakistan (27,900 RB), Mexico (14,400 RB), India 
(13,900 RB), and Indonesia (12,400 RB), were offset by reductions for unknown 
destinations (7,000 RB) and South Korea (1,900 RB). Net sales of 54,600 RB for 
2026/2027 were reported for Indonesia (26,400 RB), Mexico (20,800 RB), Vietnam 
(6,600 MT), and Thailand (900 RB). Exports of 282,200 RB--a marketing-year 
high--were up 46 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 
4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (94,600 RB), 
Pakistan (39,800 RB), Turkey (31,500 RB), China (30,300 RB), and Indonesia 
(20,300 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 7,500 RB for 2025/2026 were down 50 
percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
Increases were primarily for Pakistan (2,300 RB), Peru (1,800 RB), India (1,800 
RB), Costa Rica (1,300 RB), and Indonesia (300 RB). Exports of 12,400 RB were 
up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The 
destinations were primarily to India (4,600 RB), Vietnam (2,400 RB), China 
(1,600 RB), Costa Rica (1,200 RB), and Thailand (1,100 RB)."

   Friday, the Labor Department will issue new jobs data. Last month saw total 
nonfarm payroll employment increase by 130,000 in January 2026, after changing 
little in 2025 (+15,000 per month on average). Job gains occurred in health 
care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and 
financial activities lost jobs in January.

   Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders data. Last 
week, the managed-money funds had "bought-in" some 14,140 positions, reducing 
their net-short carry to 65,368. For context their record bearish position 
stands at 81,358 contracts.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 65.50 cents and 65.00 cents, with 
resistance around 66.75 cents and 67.35 cents. This morning's estimated volume 
is 17,518 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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