DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          03/09 07:17

   Crude and Cotton Up, Lifted by Energies 

   The overnight, dynamic move seen in the energy complex is somewhat lifting 
most boats, including cotton. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The overnight dynamic move seen in the energy complex is somewhat lifting 
most boats, including cotton. Last night, crude oil surged to $119-plus per 
barrel, which is its highest price since Russia invaded Ukraine. Such a 
dramatic spike has renewed fears of inflation, and that notion is pushing the 
depressed agricultural row-crop markets somewhat higher.

   Friday, the CFTC updated its Commitments of Traders data. Last week, the 
managed-money funds had sold some 7,500 positions, increasing their net-short 
carry to 72,937 contracts. For context their record bearish position stands at 
81,358 contracts.

   Spot March cotton saw 25 delivery notices Monday, bringing the total to 630 
for this reporting period. Spot delivery will end Monday at 5 p.m. EDT.

   Tuesday at noon EDT, USDA will release its updated supply-demand tables via 
the March WASDE. Average trade estimates for 2025-26 U.S. cotton production 
stand at 13.90 million bales, slightly down from the 13.92 million reported in 
February. Exports are expected at 11.97 million bales versus 12.00 million in 
February, and ending stocks are expected to be at 4.36 million bales compared 
to the previous 4.40 million bales. World 2025-26 production is expected at 
119.80 million bales, versus the 119.86 million in February. Consumption looks 
to be 118.75 million versus 118.72, and ending stocks are projected at 74.80 
million bales versus 75.11 million in the February update.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 65.50 cents and 65.00 cents, with 
resistance around 67.10 cents and 68.00 cents. Monday morning's estimated 
volume is 26,210 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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