DTN Midday Livestock Comments          07/01 11:42

   US Border to Again Allow Cattle Imports Shakes the Cattle Complex

   The livestock complex is trading mostly lower as fundamental demand is meek 
at this point, and USDA's announcement that cattle imports are going to resume 
from Mexico is bearishly affecting the cattle sector.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Tuesday's noon hour as 
the cattle contracts are reacting negatively to the USDA's announcement that 
Mexican cattle imports are going to resume, and the lean hog complex is trading 
lower from a lack of fundamental support. Asking prices are noted in the South 
at $225 plus. July corn is down 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is 
down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 440.45 points and the NASDAQ 
is down 168.78 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   Although the live cattle contracts aren't reacting as drastically as the 
feeder cattle contracts are to the USDA's announcement that some Mexican cattle 
imports will resume as early as July 5. The market is still trading lower 
thanks to the bearish news. August live cattle are down $3.35 at $210.52, 
October live cattle are down $2.90 at $207.27 and December live cattle are down 
$2.77 at $207.87. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. Asking prices are 
noted in the South at $225-plus, but are still not established in the North. 
Trade will likely be delayed for at least another day.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.25 ($395.81) and select up $0.92 
($385.02) with a movement of 66 loads (43.78 loads of choice, 9.81 loads of 
select, 5.81 loads of trim and 6.69 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   And just like that, the oxygen that seemed so bountiful in the feeder cattle 
complex has dried up as traders are negatively reacting to the announcement 
that the US will begin to allow Mexican cattle Imports starting as soon as July 
5. DTN Livestock Editor, Jennifer Carrico, wrote on the manner which can be 
accessed here: 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/livestock/article/2025/06/30/usda-annou
nces-phased-reopening

   Nevertheless, the biggest concern that cattle producers have is how many 
cattle are now going to be allowed to cross the border? And how is that going 
to affect domestic prices? Unfortunately, time will have to answer those 
questions, but today's negative downturn is a psychological reaction to the 
announcement. The fact remains that even with Mexican feeder cattle imports, 
the US still will be short of feeder cattle, but the concern is that if imports 
flood the market, some of the upper echelon of the market could quickly 
disappear. August feeders are down $6.17 at $304.45, September feeders are down 
$5.70 at $304.92 and October feeders are down $5.65 at $302.87.

LEAN HOGS:

   With cash prices lower and pork cutout values sharply lower, it comes as no 
real surprise that the lean hog complex is also trading lower into Tuesday's 
noon hour. July lean hogs are down $1.22 at $108.87, August lean hogs are down 
$0.60 at $106.90 and October lean hogs are up $0.07 at $92.47. Oddly enough 
today the biggest reason why the carcass price is lower is because the belly is 
down $9.10 and the butt is down $6.69.

   The projected lean hog index for 6/30/2025 is down $0.77 at $110.99 and the 
actual index for 6/27/2025 is down $0.26 at $111.76. Hog prices are lower on 
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.23 with a weighted average price 
of $109.28, ranging from $108.00 to $112.00 on 1,285 head and with a five-day 
rolling average of $109.53. Pork cutout values total 219.76 loads with 190.93 
loads of pork cuts and 28.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.28, 
$113.09.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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